German Weekend

[chriscol]

Friday:

2.Bundesliga

Oberhausen- Cottbus: Oberhausen -0.5 @ 2.05 !! 2 units!!

Probably my strongest play for the weekend. Oberhausen is slowly climbing out of the basement based on a regained home strength. They have won 5 of last 6 home game and one draw. the team is playing much better lately also away and should have a very good chance today to continue the trend against a cottbus team. Cottbus won last week against last place dresden, but overall they are not particular strong away. Also this is their 2nd away game in a row and the win last week should be satisfying enough for the road trip. it's also a short week for them. Last game was monday night.

Dresden- Frankfurt: Frankfurt pk @ 1.833

Not a very strong play, but definetely value here. Dresden is in last place in league coming off a home loss to cottbus (see above). Frankfurt is the clearly better team, but not too good in away games. This might be probably a draw, but i like the chances by taking a pk with the better team.

BOL to all

 

[chriscol]

Rec so far for the season (pushes recorded as no bet):

1.Bundesliga 64-43 +16.212 units
2.Bundesliga 24-23 -2.401 units
Regionalliga 23-30 -7.037 units

Total 111-96 +6.774<!-- / message -->

 

[jwunderdog]

Chriscol,

I posted these at the TFZ, hope you don't mind. BOL

 

[chriscol]

that'S fine. didnt have time to do it.

 

[jus000]

Good Luck on your games Criscol! Thanks again for your advice aswell!!

 

[soccerbob]

chris- I saw a total posted for all nine Bundesliga games this weekend and at first glance, it seems a bit low to me. It's 25 1/2 over -125. There looks to be a lot of potential overs this weekend and a few of the games could be those 3-3 type which certainly makes the over in this prop look pretty good.

 

[quantumleap]

I notice Freiburg is at pk -131 against Hannover. Hannover hasn't played all that well as of late but I can't help but think they will at least tie or beat Freiburg.

Any thoughts?

 

[chriscol]

Outch... bad start in the weekend for me. got to have a strong saturday now.


That'S nice quantum...i see you like picking freiburg games .unfortunately i am on the other side of it.. look at Hannover away record.I have my write ups in 30 min. ready.

Soccerbob, i 'll have a look at the total. Where did you find the total (it seems that it is for the whole weekend, usually totals are only for saturday games).

 

[chriscol]

Sorry quantum, i just realised that you are picking hannover..so we are on the same side :toast:

 

[chriscol]

Saturday: Bundesliga

Freiburg- Hannover: Hannover pk @ 2.21

Freiburg is still not a good team, even that they played some close games lately..they had some kind of hope to escape from the basement after the winter break, but the loss in Gladbach last week brought them down to earth.
Hannover meanwhile got off to a strange start. loosing both home games, but winning away. Their coach already said that he will go for a more defensive tactic today..and that'S good news for us. Hannover's strength is the defense and they are getting their wins by being solid on defense first. they forgot this in recent home games, but they will be back on track today. At least a draw here for them with a very good chance of a low scoring win.

Hamburg- Stuttgart: Hamburg -0.5,pk 2.01

Hamburg coming of a solid away win has marked this game since the beginning of the year. They are one of the strongest teams in germany lately and Stuttgart is the name they want to catch in race for european spots. They will have strong home support and should be confident enough to get a win against a suddenly struggeling Stuttgart team. Stuttgart only draw against an undermanned Kaiserslautern team at home last week and something seems to be not on track with the team so far. Current form and motivation and home advantage lead to the obvious pick.

Berlin - Nürnberg: Berlin -1 @ 1.962 !! 2 units!! and OVER 2.5,3 goals @ 1.862

Berlin is another team on the rise in germany. Marcelinho is back in action today, which should boost their confidence and gives them more striking power. they are struggeling a bit at home, but their coach has announce this game as game of the season so far. They need a win if they want to be involved in the races for the top places. They are clearly the better team here anyway, as Nürnberg is struggeling at the moment and a bottom club anyway.
Nürnberg ia also always able to score, while they are very weak on defense. That'S why i like the over here too. Usually high scoring games with Nürnberg.

I had a look at some other games, but the hdc if very close to reality overall.
Maybe just some news and leanings for those who like the action.

Rostock is strong away and they are due for at least a point or win in Kaiserslautern, but the flu hit the team during week and two key players are suspended. that makes it a no play for me.
Schalke should win against Wolfsburg, but they usually struggle against that team at home, and they are still missing Bordon, which has proven to be a factor against them in last two games.
Dortmund should also win against Bochum, but it is a derby (both stadium just 5 min away of eachother. Couls be a very close and entertaining game.

BOL to all

 

[chriscol]

chris- I saw a total posted for all nine Bundesliga games this weekend and at first glance, it seems a bit low to me. It's 25 1/2 over -125. There looks to be a lot of potential overs this weekend and a few of the games could be those 3-3 type which certainly makes the over in this prop look pretty good.

Having a look at the grand total here are my tendencies for the games: i usually look how i estimate the game in comparison to a 3 goals game and then add up, if there is potential to go under or over:

Dortmund- Bochum: 3 goals
Berlin- Nürnberg: over 3
Bremen- Gladbach: 3
Freiburg- Hannover : under 3
Kaiserslautern- Rostock: under 3
Schalke- wolfsburg under 3
Hamburg- Stuttgart: 3
----------------------
Bielefeld- München: under 3
Leverkusen- Mainz over 3

so i got 2 potential overs and 4 unders. that makes the line about right IMO as 25.5 is 1.5 under the avarage of 3 goals per game.
if i had to play the total i would go for the under actually as i am more confident in the under games.

 

[quantumleap]

I'm glad to see we were on the same side. Perhaps the under was the play here as this one ended 0-0. I didn't want to bet the under due to Freiburg's defensive lapses in past games.

 

[chriscol]

solid saturday. one push all the rest winners.

let'S keep it up on sunday: Just time for short write ups today

1. Bundesliga:

Leverkusen- Mainz: Leverkusen -1.5 @ 2.03 !! 2 units!!

Better team , strong home team, against struggeling team (6 loss in row)

Bielefeld- München: under 2.5,3@ 1.765

Obvious play. Bielefeld under at home is a banker whole season. München will not do too much with arsenal coming up.

2. Bundesliga:

Fürth- Trier: Over 2.5,3 @1.826

2 high scoring teams with vulnurable defenses

Saarbrücken- Burghausen: Saarbrücken -0.5 @ 1.76

Much better team on a great run especially at home.
BOL to all